Canada’s recent policy changes may actually create a better environment for international students who hope to study in Canada and later become permanent residents. While it may seem unusual that cuts to the student program could benefit newcomers, the reality is that smaller numbers today could open more opportunities in the years ahead.
Why Fewer International Students Means an Easier PR Path Later
Canada has reduced the number of international students it plans to admit. This means future graduating classes will be much smaller than the unusually large groups that came between 2022 and 2023. Because permanent residence targets for economic immigrants have slightly increased, this combination creates less competition down the line. Smaller student groups will graduate, work, and apply for PR at a time when there are fewer people fighting for the same number of PR spots.
The admissions target for new international students dropped nearly half between 2025 and 2026, while immigration targets for economic permanent residents increased slightly. Even though recent Express Entry cutoffs have been extremely high, it’s important to look several years ahead. A typical bachelor’s degree student studies for four years, gets a three-year post-graduation work permit, and becomes eligible for permanent residence five or six years after starting school. By the time today’s newcomers apply, most graduates from older, larger cohorts will no longer have valid eligibility for Canadian Experience Class (CEC). This naturally reduces competition and improves chances for new students.
Why Having a PGWP Gives Students a Big Advantage in PR Selection
Canada has been inviting more Canadian Experience Class candidates through Express Entry. A CEC application requires at least one year of skilled work experience in Canada. Most students achieve this through a Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP), which gives them an open work permit for up to three years after graduation.
An open work permit allows graduates to work for almost any employer, making it easier for them to get the skilled Canadian work experience needed for CEC. With Canadian education, local networks, Canadian work experience, and familiarity with the country, PGWP holders often have a smoother path to PR compared to those who arrive directly with temporary work permits.
The End of Employment Bonus Points Helps PGWP Holders
Canada used to award extra CRS points for arranged employment (job offers supported by certain work permits). This system benefited applicants with employer-specific work permits, especially those under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP).
These bonus points have now been removed. As a result, PGWP holders are no longer at a disadvantage compared to workers who hold closed or employer-specific permits. Everyone starts from the same level, and the open nature of the PGWP becomes even more valuable.
Cuts to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program Reduce Competition Even Further
The TFWP has also been reduced. This means fewer workers will come to Canada with several years of foreign skilled experience. Typically, TFWP workers have stronger backgrounds, which allow them to score more CRS points under the skill transferability section.
International students, in contrast, often come straight from school with little or no skilled foreign work experience. Without competition from TFWP applicants who could previously reach higher CRS scores, PGWP holders will face not only fewer competitors but competitors with generally lower CRS advantages.
Looking Ahead: What These Changes Mean for Today’s Students
While no one can predict how policies will shift in the next six or seven years, the recent developments create real advantages for international students starting their journey now. Smaller student numbers, fewer temporary foreign workers, and a system that increasingly rewards Canadian education and Canadian work experience all point to a more balanced and potentially more favourable pathway to permanent residence for future graduates.
Why would cutting the number of international students actually help new students?
A smaller number of students now means fewer graduates in the future competing for permanent residence. When the number of PR spots stays the same or increases slightly, smaller cohorts benefit.
How important is a Canadian bachelor’s degree?
A Canadian bachelor’s degree gives extra CRS points and allows students to qualify for a full three-year PGWP, which helps them gain the work experience needed for CEC.
Will Express Entry stay the same by 2032 or 2033?
No one can predict exactly, but current trends suggest continued focus on CEC candidates and Canadian work experience, which benefits PGWP holders.
Do PGWP holders need a job offer to qualify for PR?
No. PGWP holders can qualify for the Canadian Experience Class as long as they have one year of skilled Canadian work experience. Job offer points are no longer part of the CRS additional points.
Does foreign work experience matter for international students?
It can help, but many students arrive young and without skilled experience. Removing strong TFWP competitors levels the playing field for students who may not have foreign experience.
Are TFWP workers still strong competitors for PR?
Some are, especially those with skilled foreign experience. However, the recent cuts mean fewer of them will apply for PR in Canada, reducing overall competition.
