What’s happening right now. Canada set a goal to welcome 367,750 new foreign workers in 2025, but the actual number of people arriving so far this year is much lower. If arrival patterns stay the same for the rest of the year, experts estimate Canada will admit about 202,923 foreign workers in 2025. That is more than 160,000 fewer than the government’s 2025 goal, and it is very close to the 2026 target of 230,000. In short: Canada looks likely to fall well short of its 2025 target and is already matching the lower numbers planned for 2026.
How they made this estimate. The government counts two main types of work permits: the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) and the International Mobility Program (IMP). Between January and August 2025, Canada recorded 154,515 new foreign workers across these two programs. The analysts adjusted those numbers to account for normal seasonal patterns by comparing the same months in 2024. Using that method, they projected the full-year totals for 2025 will be 59,679 (TFWP) and 143,244 (IMP), which together equal 202,923 for the year.
Monthly arrivals so far (2025):
| Month | Temporary Foreign Worker Permits | International Mobility Program Permits |
|---|---|---|
| 25-Jan | 3,895 | 11,005 |
| 25-Feb | 3,320 | 11,070 |
| 25-Mar | 4,795 | 13,750 |
| 25-Apr | 7,750 | 15,890 |
| 25-May | 7,470 | 16,205 |
| 25-Jun | 6,470 | 17,555 |
| 25-Jul | 5,420 | 13,030 |
| 25-Aug | 4,195 | 12,695 |
| Total | 43,315 | 111,200 |
What the numbers mean. If these projections hold, Canada would admit:
| TFWP | IMP | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected totals in 2025 | 59,679 | 143,244 | 202,923 |
| Admissions target (2025) | 82,000 | 285,750 | 367,750 |
| Difference to 2025 targets | -22,321 | -142,506 | -164,827 |
Compared with the lower 2026 targets (TFWP 60,000, IMP 170,000, total 230,000), the projected 2025 numbers are much closer and only slightly below 2026 in total: about 27,000 fewer than the government plans for 2026.
Why admissions are falling. The federal government changed several rules in 2024 and 2025 to slow the growth of temporary residents (this includes foreign workers and international students). These policy changes were aimed at easing pressure on housing and affordability. Important policy changes include tighter rules and higher requirements for some work permits, such as higher wage levels for some jobs, limits in some regions, stricter rules for spousal work permits, changes to post-graduation work permit eligibility, and removing some COVID-era flexibilities. Because of these changes, fewer work permits are being issued.
What we’re already seeing on the ground. The drop in temporary residents is one factor behind lower rental price growth in some cities. Reports from financial and housing agencies show slower rent increases and, in some places, declining asking rents. There’s also some sign of lower jobless rates in places where the reduction in new arrivals is most noticeable. These are early effects; the long-term impact is still uncertain.
What this could mean for people thinking about Canada. For workers, students, and families considering Canada, here are the practical implications in plain language. First, it may be harder to get certain work permits, especially for lower-wage jobs or roles in regions with higher unemployment. Second, employers who relied on foreign workers for labour may struggle to fill positions quickly, which could affect hiring and service levels in some industries. Third, housing pressure may ease in the short term in some cities, which could help renters, at least temporarily. Finally, rules and eligibility for some programs (like post-graduation work permits) are stricter now, so applicants should check current requirements before applying.
Short summary. Canada is bringing in far fewer foreign workers than planned for 2025. The projected total—about 202,923—is well below the 2025 target and is already close to the lower level set for 2026. This is the result of deliberate policy changes meant to reduce temporary resident numbers and ease housing and affordability pressures. The immediate effects are visible in softer rent growth and some labour-market shifts, but longer-term impacts are still developing.
Q: Does this mean Canada is closed to foreign workers?
A: No. Canada is still accepting foreign workers, but the government has tightened rules and set lower targets. Some permit streams are more restricted now, so certain jobs and applicants will find it harder than before.
Q: Will existing work permit holders be affected?
A: In most cases, people already in Canada on valid permits can continue to work under their current status. The changes mainly affect new applications and eligibility rules going forward.
Q: If I’m an employer, will it be harder to hire international workers?
A: Yes, especially for lower-wage positions and in regions with higher unemployment. Employers may need to plan for longer recruitment times, consider higher wages to meet new rules, or look for local workers where possible.
Q: Could rents fall because fewer people are arriving?
A: There are signs of slower rent growth in some cities and even falling asking rents in a few places. That’s one effect of fewer newcomers, but rent is influenced by many factors, so this won’t be the only driver.
Q: Should students or people planning to apply for work permits wait?
A: Waiting is not necessarily better. Rules can change and processing times vary. It’s best to check the current eligibility rules and get advice from an immigration professional if you’re unsure.
Q: Where can I get reliable, up-to-date information?
A: Official federal sources (Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada) list current rules and targets. For personal cases, consult an accredited immigration adviser or lawyer.
